TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgic, M.
AU  - Mumovic, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Stevanović, Žarko M.
AU  - Ecim-Djuric, O.
PY  - 2013
UR  - https://vinar.vin.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/5419
AB  - This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
T2  - Energy and Buildings
T1  - Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model
VL  - 60
SP  - 1
EP  - 11
DO  - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgic, M. and Mumovic, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Žarko M. and Ecim-Djuric, O.",
year = "2013",
abstract = "This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",
journal = "Energy and Buildings",
title = "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model",
volume = "60",
pages = "1-11",
doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005"
}

Kavgic, M., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Ž. M.,& Ecim-Djuric, O.. (2013). Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings, 60, 1-11.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005

Kavgic M, Mumovic D, Summerfield A, Stevanović ŽM, Ecim-Djuric O. Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings. 2013;60:1-11.
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 .

Kavgic, M., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Žarko M., Ecim-Djuric, O., "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model" in Energy and Buildings, 60 (2013):1-11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgic, M.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Mumovic, D.
AU  - Stevanović, Žarko M.
AU  - Turanjanin, Valentina
AU  - Stevanović, Žana
PY  - 2012
UR  - https://vinar.vin.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4759
AB  - A lack of empirical data for residential indoor temperature has important implications for policy-makers in terms of energy performance objectives and the use of energy demand models for the building stock. This study investigates winter indoor temperatures, relative humidity and vapour pressure excess in 2009-2010 across various types and ages of buildings using half-hourly monitoring of 96 dwellings representative of residential buildings in Belgrade, including those with district heating (DH) with no direct occupant control in which heating is charged on a floor area basis. The average daily living room temperature of 22.8 degrees C (95%CI: 21.9-22.7) in DH dwellings was 2.3 degrees C higher than those with other heating types, including individual central heating (ICH) and non-central heating (non-CH), daily bedroom temperature of 22.3 degrees C (95%CI: 21.9-22.7) was 3.0 degrees C higher. Evening living room and night bedroom temperatures in ICH dwellings were 22% and 37% of the time respectively below 18 degrees C, and 10% and 27% of the time respectively in non-CH dwellings. The high degree of overheating in DH dwellings indicates the considerable potential to reduce energy consumption, if user controls and heating bills reflected household consumption were introduced. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
T2  - Energy and Buildings
T1  - Characteristics of indoor temperatures over winter for Belgrade urban dwellings: Indications of thermal comfort and space heating energy demand
VL  - 47
SP  - 506
EP  - 514
DO  - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgic, M. and Summerfield, A. and Mumovic, D. and Stevanović, Žarko M. and Turanjanin, Valentina and Stevanović, Žana",
year = "2012",
abstract = "A lack of empirical data for residential indoor temperature has important implications for policy-makers in terms of energy performance objectives and the use of energy demand models for the building stock. This study investigates winter indoor temperatures, relative humidity and vapour pressure excess in 2009-2010 across various types and ages of buildings using half-hourly monitoring of 96 dwellings representative of residential buildings in Belgrade, including those with district heating (DH) with no direct occupant control in which heating is charged on a floor area basis. The average daily living room temperature of 22.8 degrees C (95%CI: 21.9-22.7) in DH dwellings was 2.3 degrees C higher than those with other heating types, including individual central heating (ICH) and non-central heating (non-CH), daily bedroom temperature of 22.3 degrees C (95%CI: 21.9-22.7) was 3.0 degrees C higher. Evening living room and night bedroom temperatures in ICH dwellings were 22% and 37% of the time respectively below 18 degrees C, and 10% and 27% of the time respectively in non-CH dwellings. The high degree of overheating in DH dwellings indicates the considerable potential to reduce energy consumption, if user controls and heating bills reflected household consumption were introduced. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",
journal = "Energy and Buildings",
title = "Characteristics of indoor temperatures over winter for Belgrade urban dwellings: Indications of thermal comfort and space heating energy demand",
volume = "47",
pages = "506-514",
doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027"
}

Kavgic, M., Summerfield, A., Mumovic, D., Stevanović, Ž. M., Turanjanin, V.,& Stevanović, Ž.. (2012). Characteristics of indoor temperatures over winter for Belgrade urban dwellings: Indications of thermal comfort and space heating energy demand. in Energy and Buildings, 47, 506-514.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027

Kavgic M, Summerfield A, Mumovic D, Stevanović ŽM, Turanjanin V, Stevanović Ž. Characteristics of indoor temperatures over winter for Belgrade urban dwellings: Indications of thermal comfort and space heating energy demand. in Energy and Buildings. 2012;47:506-514.
doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027 .

Kavgic, M., Summerfield, A., Mumovic, D., Stevanović, Žarko M., Turanjanin, Valentina, Stevanović, Žana, "Characteristics of indoor temperatures over winter for Belgrade urban dwellings: Indications of thermal comfort and space heating energy demand" in Energy and Buildings, 47 (2012):506-514,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kavgic, M.
AU  - Mavrogianni, A.
AU  - Mumovic, D.
AU  - Summerfield, A.
AU  - Stevanović, Žarko M.
AU  - Đurović-Petrović, M.
PY  - 2010
UR  - https://vinar.vin.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3973
AB  - Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
T2  - Building and Environment
T1  - A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector
VL  - 45
IS  - 7
SP  - 1683
EP  - 1697
DO  - 10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Kavgic, M. and Mavrogianni, A. and Mumovic, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Žarko M. and Đurović-Petrović, M.",
year = "2010",
abstract = "Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",
journal = "Building and Environment",
title = "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector",
volume = "45",
number = "7",
pages = "1683-1697",
doi = "10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021"
}

Kavgic, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Ž. M.,& Đurović-Petrović, M.. (2010). A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment, 45(7), 1683-1697.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021

Kavgic M, Mavrogianni A, Mumovic D, Summerfield A, Stevanović ŽM, Đurović-Petrović M. A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector. in Building and Environment. 2010;45(7):1683-1697.
doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 .

Kavgic, M., Mavrogianni, A., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Žarko M., Đurović-Petrović, M., "A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector" in Building and Environment, 45, no. 7 (2010):1683-1697,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.01.021 . .