Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model
Apstrakt
This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive pro...perties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ključne reči:
Housing stock / Domestic energy model / Sensitivity analysis / Carbon dioxide emissions / Energy efficiencyIzvor:
Energy and Buildings, 2013, 60, 1-11
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
ISSN: 0378-7788
WoS: 000317539800001
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84873889746
Kolekcije
Institucija/grupa
VinčaTY - JOUR AU - Kavgic, M. AU - Mumovic, D. AU - Summerfield, A. AU - Stevanović, Žarko M. AU - Ecim-Djuric, O. PY - 2013 UR - https://vinar.vin.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/5419 AB - This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. T2 - Energy and Buildings T1 - Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model VL - 60 SP - 1 EP - 11 DO - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 ER -
@article{ author = "Kavgic, M. and Mumovic, D. and Summerfield, A. and Stevanović, Žarko M. and Ecim-Djuric, O.", year = "2013", abstract = "This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.", journal = "Energy and Buildings", title = "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model", volume = "60", pages = "1-11", doi = "10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005" }
Kavgic, M., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Ž. M.,& Ecim-Djuric, O.. (2013). Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings, 60, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
Kavgic M, Mumovic D, Summerfield A, Stevanović ŽM, Ecim-Djuric O. Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model. in Energy and Buildings. 2013;60:1-11. doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 .
Kavgic, M., Mumovic, D., Summerfield, A., Stevanović, Žarko M., Ecim-Djuric, O., "Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model" in Energy and Buildings, 60 (2013):1-11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005 . .