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dc.creatorKavgic, Miroslava
dc.creatorSummerfield, Alex
dc.creatorMumovic, Dejan
dc.creatorStevanović, Žarko M.
dc.identifier.issn1940-1493 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1940-1507 (electronic)
dc.description.abstractDetailed domestic stock energy models can be used to help formulate optimum energy reduction strategies. However, there will always be considerable uncertainty related to their predictions due to the complexity of the housing stock and the many assumptions required to implement the models. This paper presents a simple Monte Carlo (MC) model that can be easily extended and/or transformed in relation to data available for investigating and quantifying uncertainties in both the housing stock models predictions and scenario assumptions. While 90% of the MC model predictions fell within a range which is +/- 19% the mean value, 50% of them were within +/- 8% of the mean. The findings suggest that the uncertainties associated with the model predictions and scenario assumptions need to be acknowledged fully and - where possible - quantified as even fairly small variability in the influential variables may result in rather large uncertainty in the aggregated models prediction.en
dc.sourceJournal of Building Performance Simulationen
dc.subjectMonte Carlo methoden
dc.subjectuncertainty analysisen
dc.subjectexplorative scenariosen
dc.subjectdomestic space heating energy useen
dc.subjectdomestic energy modelsen
dc.titleApplication of a Monte Carlo model to predict space heating energy use of Belgrades housing stocken
dcterms.abstractМумовиц, Дејан; Суммерфиелд, Aлеx; Кавгиц, Мирослава; Стевановиц, Зарко;

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